With Supervisors Roberts and Horn heading to a run off, both supervisors have been spinning the run-off as a result of a large field. Of course a scared campaign would try to spin bad news into good news but the fact is that both Supes were given astounding messages from their voters that they were not interested in returning them to office. Horn and Roberts can say whatever they want about outpacing their opponents but the fact is that they didn’t even get a majority of the vote speaks volumes.

While reading the VOSD’s article on the run-off, what caught my eye was this comment from GOP consultant, Tom Shepard:

“It’s a change,” said Tom Shepard, the strategist for Roberts and Horn. “No doubt about that. We have not had contested runoff elections in supervisors races in some time. In that sense it is news. But you have to put that in perspective and my perspective is both of these guys outpaced their second-place finishers by two-to-one margins and are within a couple percent of absolute majority.”

What Tom Shepard is neglecting to mention is that Ron Roberts actually has a lot in common with Donna Frye. Remember Frye in the 2005 race for Mayor? She cobbled together 43% of the vote in a loaded and busy field. Sanders came in a very distant 2nd place with 27% of the vote. You didn’t see the GOP writing off their chances for Mayor and throwing their hands up saying that Frye would win handily in the run off since she was nearly ahead of Sanders by a 2-1 margin. What happened a few months later? Sanders went on to win 53% to 46%. That is where the similarities come into play. The fact is that Roberts is just an old tired politician who no longer represents the values of the hard working taxpayers in District 4.

In November, Roberts will share a lot in common with Frye and go on to continue to garner nearly identical numbers in the run off as he did in the primary and lose to the 2nd place finisher since the voters have made it clear they are just not interested in Roberts representing them on the Board of Supervisors just as the City of SD made it clear that it wasn’t interested in having Frye as the next Mayor of SD.

While I have been quiet and busy, I haven’t stayed away from keeping my eye on the local races throughout the county. I want to throw in my two cents before results come rolling in tonight.

The Big One – Board of Supervisors

The biggest race tonight will be Ron Robert’s re-election race for the Board of Supervisors. It has been interesting watching Roberts struggle the past four weeks. Previously he was an arrogant elected official and lately he has had to learn how to act like a candidate in order to at least have another four years on the Board of Supervisors.  He likes to poke holes in Stepehen Whitburn’s statements whenever on the campaign trail. Roberts does that to cover up the fact that he has nothing fresh to offer for the voters.

Whitburn will finish a strong second tonight to force a run off. This will be a big wake up call to all the supervisors and will be the start of a change of composition on the board. It might encourage Pam Slate-Price to give up a nasty battle against popular republican challenger, Steve Danon. If Cheryl Cox loses re-election to her CV Mayor seat then I am pretty certain Greg Cox will start looking at not running for re-election in 2012 considering the fact that he will likely have to face popular termed out State Senator Denise Ducheny and possibly SD City Council President Ben Hueso if he fails to win the 79^th AD primary tonight. Tonight’s results will be the start of a chain reaction for the other supervisors to step aside and let some fresh blood onto the board in 2012 or face what Roberts is going through right now.

City of San Diego D8

South Bay is the busiest battleground this season. I am fortunate to be living in the middle of it all. In January, I seriously thought David Alvarez had everything under control in the SD City Council D8 race. But that was before March when both BD Howard and Nick Inzunza started blitzing Nestor/Egger Highlands. If you are like most voters from central SD you will be thinking where in the world is Nestor/Egger Highlands? Those two neighborhoods are actually part of the City of San Diego even though they are south of Chula Vista and west of the 5 interstate freeway and right next door to Imperial Beach. It is out of the way and often forgotten. Inzunza and Howard have pounced on the opportunity to focus heavily on these neighborhoods and it is showing. I usually drive home getting off at Palm Avenue driving West and usually see a somber faced Inzunza waving at everyone driving by. I have never seen him smile while waving which shows how long he has been standing out on the streets waving and increasing his name ID.

I am predicting Inzuna wins 1^st and then Alvarez comes in a weak second to set them up for a Fall matchup. Alvarez will have the ultimate advantage as it will become a two man field and focusing only on Nestor/Egger Highlands won’t cut it for a run-off victory.

City of San Diego D6

Kim Tran is taking a similar approach that both Inzunza and Howard took in the D8 race. Tran is focusing heavily on Linda Vista, which is an often forgotten neighborhood. Sure you need Clairemont to win the D6 seat outright but in a crowded field if you are able to carry Linda Vista that will get you in the run off. Tran has high name ID from her numerous failed write in campaigns for State Assembly. Most people don’t remember that but she had plenty of signs in Linda Vista and I lived there for a long time before moving to South Bay and got tired of seeing the Tran signs and that has built up some significant name ID for her.

I predict Howard Wayne will come in a strong first and Tran will come in 2^nd due to her strong name ID in Linda Vista. Everyone else will come trailing behind. The GOP will then put their weight behind Tran for November’s run off but it will be too late since Wayne will have his grip on Clairemont and will start eating into Tran’s turf in Linda Vista.

State Assembly 79^th AD

I am predicting a huge upset. Pearl Quinones has been working hard and I haven’t been a fan of her campaign but the fact is that this candidate has been working so hard. She was a clear contrast to Ben Hueso who was largely absent from South Bay until a few weeks ago. My neighborhood still hasn’t been canvassed by Hueso’s team and his recent negative mailer on Quinones was a big turn off considering that Hueso has been largely invisible from Nestor/Egger Highlands. Quinones will pull off the upset win and alter the landscape for future state assembly races in South Bay.

Past wisdom was that the current D8 seat holder was always the shoo in frontrunner for the 79^th AD seat. The exception was when Ralph Inzunza was convicted and left office. That created a rare opportunity for a smaller seat holder like Salas to swoop in for the seat. I figured it would be returned to the City of SD D8 seatholder in future elections. But with the way Hueso ran his campaign it seems like he is opening the floodgates for future city councilmembers/mayors/school board members from Chula Vista, Imperial Beach and National City to consider running for state assembly without having to worry about past history giving the City of SD D8 seat holder the advantage.

The Salas for State Senate campaign has come out swinging the past two weeks. They needed to kick it up a notch since Juan Vargas’ buddies from the insurance companies that he is chummy with are going to be burning through cash to help people remember who Vargas is and why they should send him back to Sacramento.

It is starting to get interesting and somewhat ironic. First example… Look at Vargas’ campaign yard signs “Clean Up Sacramento – Vargas for State Senate”… Riiiight… If I wanted to clean up Sacramento, I wouldn’t be sending a politician who spent six years cuddling with the insurance lobbyists in Sacramento and then promising everyone he wouldn’t go to work for insurance once he was termed out only to see him do a 360 degree tailspin and go to work for insurance.

Salas has a tough playbook to use. She wants to remind people that Vargas is the sleazy politician but when she does that she is actually raising his name ID and people who live in City of SD’s D8 have fond memories of Vargas when he was their guy in City Hall. So it is sort of a catch-22 trying to remind people that Vargas is the politician you wouldn’t want representing you in Sacramento while reminding voters about Vargas’ past in South Bay.

On Saturday two weeks ago the Salas campaign sent out a nice colorful mailer piece that touted all of her endorsements and it was a really nice eye catching mailer. The timing of the mailer was quite clever. Saturday is the day when we get the less amount of junk mail and to get a campaign mailer on a Saturday was easy for a South Bay voter like myself to quickly single out the mailer piece and read it to find out more about the Salas campaign.

The Salas campaign then followed up last week with a hard hitting mail piece reminding voters who Juan Vargas really is. I will try to get a PDF of the mailer from the Salas campaign to post up here. It was bold and to the point. I have always been a Salas supporter but believed that Vargas was going to pull it off but now that I am seeing the Salas campaign under the leadership of Barry Klein become more focused and aggressive, I believe Salas is going to build momentum. The campaign was already building momentum when Klein began churning out tons of press releases about endorsements. The endorsements were great eye candy but I didn’t see any real action until the mailer pieces came out. I am looking forward to seeing what the Vargas campaign will come up with because I really can’t think of anything negative to stick on Salas. But then again it was the Vargas henchman, Colin Rice, who spearheaded the last minute nasty mailer on Stephen Whitburn during the 2008 campaign for the City of SD D3 seat. Whitburn was a pretty clean candidate but Rice was able to spin a very negative piece that generated a lot of publicity. If Rice did that in 2008, it isn’t too far-fetched to imagine Rice coming up with something similar in 2010 so I am curious what it will be.

This race will be the closest one to watch on election night in June. I am no longer placing my money on Vargas and will be placing my money on Salas. Hopefully she will come out the victor. Will keep tracking this race up to the end in June.

A while back I figured that Juan Vargas had the edge for the 40th State Senate seat. After all his campaign has the nicest holiday greeting card/letter out of all South Bay politicians. Just a week ago I heard a knock on my door. It was 7pm and I wondered who the heck would be knocking at my door at night. It was a Juan Vargas canvasser who looked like a college freshman. After a brief conversation about Vargas’ candidacy, the kid left and my wife asked me why the heck anyone would be knocking at doors after dark. I told her that was the beauty of an election season heating up. Although it was sort of stupid and dangerous because the canvasser was actually walking in the direction towards San Diego (Nestor/Egger Highlands) and away from Imperial Beach. IB is the safe side and walking towards the SD side is sorta like walking towards Skyline at 9pm. I hope he survived the rest of the night if he kept canvassing as he walked towards the SD line.

That kid was the first sign of any politicking or canvassing in my neighborhood. I haven’t seen any of the 79th AD candidates or any of the 40th SD candidates until Vargas’ canvasser last week. Was wondering what was going on and if they were waging a money race instead of an on the ground race.

Then along comes word that Salas has secured the recommendation from delegates in the 40th SD to receive the Democratic Party endorsement. She won this recommendation in a huge way with ZERO competition. The vote tally was 84-0. Yes you read that right, 84 delegates overwhelmingly voted to recommended endorsement of the Salas campaign by the Democratic Party.

I am not sure why not even one or a dozen of the delegates backed Vargas. It is one thing to run against the party’s machinery if you are well established with only a few activists on your side but it becomes exceedingly difficult to win a race without the party’s backing especially if NONE of the delegates from the district support your campaign.  It is also bad considering the fact that Vargas was a long time fixture in South Bay politics since he was on the SD City Council  and then the State Assembly. He should have at least churned out one supporter out of eighty-four!

It is also notable that her press release was written by Barry Klein who is a political operative from the east coast. He worked for a congressman in NYC and then he moved over here when his wife accepted work in San Diego. He is definitely a top get for any campaign and to see that he is now working for Salas actually bodes well for her campaign. Vargas has plenty of talented operatives in Jim Anderson and co. But Barry Klein is definitely good new political talent that hasn’t been utilized by local candidates until now. I look forward to seeing if the Salas campaign will get better with Barry Klein on board.

I woke up early this morning to see that Danon sent out an e-mail to Pam Slater-Price and her Chief of Staff, John Weil, regarding the County’s Neighborhood Reinvestment Program (NRP).

The email was brief and had a nice long letter in PDF format attached to it.

In the e-mail Danon states:

When Stephen Whitburn announced his candidacy, I was skeptical of Whitburn’s chances. I changed my tone and became a believer in Whitburn. I wrote a post about how his campaign had a legit shot at winning since Frye was a low name ID candidate who had won low vote campaigns and went from a sub 20k voter winner to a 150k plus vote getter in one election. If anyone else could follow in Frye’s footsteps, it is Stephen Whitburn who has nearly all the identical supporters that Frye has.

Over the past week the Whitburn campaign has been uncharacteristically quiet and I began kicking myself for thinking that he had any chance in duplicating Frye’s successes. If Frye was running she would have been all over the media and holding massive superwalks for her campaign this past weekend. Where was Whitburn? It turns out that Whitburn is actually smarter than Frye. He has gone out of his way to make sure he doesn’t repeat the mistakes of his 2008 loss to Todd Gloria. Instead of running a grassroots campaign managed by amateur campaign managers, he has hired a top notch consultant, Jennifer Tierney. Yes the same Tierney who helped engineer Todd Gloria’s win over Whitburn in 2008.

Tierney consulted for Dick Murphy’s re-election campaign in 2004. This was the same campaign that easily put away Ron Roberts for good. Although Frye gave Murphy a heart attack with her shoulda-won loss, Murphy easily beat Roberts. This is a good thing for Whitburn to have a campaign consultant that has a track record of beating Ron Roberts.

Anyone who hires either Tierney or Tom Shepard is considered a legit candidate and just by having Tierny on board, I definitely can remove the “long-shot” label from the Whitburn campaign.

Whitburn has quietly laid down the groundwork for a strong start campaign start in April. With his upcoming fundraising next weekend and several high profile endorsements last week (Frye, Kehoe and Atkins), Whitburn is kicking into high gear and is doing it in the right way by conserving momentum and running a professional campaign. It is difficult to run a professional grassroots campaign but it is do-able. With Tierney on board, Whitburn is on the right track.

Ron Roberts will likely have to kick his fund-raising into high gear even more to try to maintain the image that he is way out in front all alone. With Whitburn gaining ground, Roberts is starting to look more and more vulnerable. Today, I give Whitburn a 2 in 5 chance to knock off Roberts. If Whitburn makes it into a run-off with Roberts with at least 33% of the vote in June, Whitburn will erase any advantage Roberts has over Whitburn and will peg Whitburn’s chances at 1 in 2 to knock Roberts off his perch. Only time will tell.

I enjoyed reading Andrew Donohue’s brief analysis of Whitburn’s candidacy for the Board of Supervisors.

I want to throw in some figures here that might change our perspective of a Whitburn candidacy. Up until a few hours ago I thought a Whitburn campaign would be a long shot but now I see it as a toss up. Maybe these numbers will change your mind.

Frye didn’t always have high name ID. In fact when she ran for mayor as a write-in, she garnered 155,851 votes, that was the highest she had ever received and that built her high name ID. It was in the beginning of that same race that she didn’t have any good name ID to begin with yet she beat Roberts and nearly pulled off the win of the decade. Prior to the amazing 155,851 write-in votes, Frye had only managed to win 17,136 votes when she cruised to re-election in 2002 for her first full term on the City Council. Prior to that she received 12,259 votes in the special election run-off against Steve Danon back in 2001. Do you see the numbers now… She jumped from being a 17,136 vote getter to a 155,851 vote getter.

It won’t be hard to imagine Whitburn pulling off the same thing. Whitburn has what Frye has: an army of loyal volunteers and activists. Todd Gloria was able to beat back this army in 2008 but it took a huge amount of work to do it and Todd is one of the most talented young politicians that San Diego has ever seen. If it were anyone else, Whitburn would have won the race. With Whitburn jumping into the Board of Supervisor race with the same group of loyal volunteers, Whitburn can do what Frye did back in 2004. In 2004, the environment was toxic for both Dick Murphy and Ron Roberts. Everyone was tired of the same old men running for office and wanted change.

With the bad economy, lost jobs and the term limits initiative the environment might be what Whitburn needs to beat Roberts. It has been 16 long years that Roberts has been on the Board of Supervisors. Ask yourself, are we better off than we were 16 years ago when we first elected Roberts? It is also no secret that Roberts hasn’t had a formidable foe in a while so his campaigning skills are a little off. He actually listed his government office address and phone number as his campaign address and contact when he launched his Facebook campaign page. It was the only place to find his campaign’s contact and he was brashly using government resources to campaign which is a big illegal no-no (He has then changed it after I alerted some GOPers). But no one seems to care yet… That might change soon when voters start taking interest in the fact that our government just basically sucks and that we have a choice in 2010 and vote for the other guy for a change. That is the wave that Donna Frye rode on in 2004 and that wave looks like it may be forming again.

So before you write off Whitburn as a long shot like I did, think about the numbers I just laid out before you. Whitburn lost against Todd Gloria in 2008 with 23,191 votes. This was more than 5,000 votes than Donna Frye ever got before she was propelled to her stunning 155,851 write-in votes for the 2004 Mayor’s race. With the right conditions that appear to be forming now, Whitburn might be the right guy to unseat Roberts in 2010.

It is (un)official… Stephen Whitburn is entering the race for the Board of Supervisors tonight at 5:30pm at a press conference at Twiggs in University Heights. It is the worst (and best kept) secret on the streets now. Everyone is emailing me heads up of this and I haven’t seen it posted online yet so am putting it up now.

The address is 4590 Park Boulvard. It is at the corner of Park and Madison. Be there to hear the announcement.

I still think Stephen is a long shot but if Frye is out and there is just everyone else left, Stephen is definitely the best candidate to take on Roberts. He has a rabid army of supporters that helped him nearly take down Todd Gloria in the D3 race in 2008. As one of Todd’s biggest supporters in 2008, I was afraid of Whitburn supporters since they were so damn loyal and good at getting other folks to agree and support Whitburn.

Now as one of Whitburn’s biggest supporters in 2010, I can tell you that I am glad that I am not on Robert’s team. Roberts hasn’t faced a real race for years so for those Roberts’ supporters out there, be ready for what is coming at you. Whitburn is a fighter and he isn’t going down without a big fight even if he is a long shot at this stage.

Here is the press advisory for tonight’s press conference on Twiggs:

STEPHEN WHITBURN

MEDIA ADVISORY

March 10, 2010

Stephen Whitburn, a 2008 City Council candidate, will hold a news conference to make an announcement regarding the San Diego County Board of Supervisors on Thursday, March 11^th at 5:30 p.m. at Twiggs Coffeehouse in University Heights.

WHEN: Thursday, March 11, 2010 – 5:30 p.m.

WHERE: Twiggs Bakery & Coffeehouse

4590 Park Boulevard

(Corner of Park and Madison)

San Diego, CA 92116

WHO: Stephen Whitburn, 2008 City Council candidate, neighborhoods advocate, and past president of the San Diego Democratic Club

WHAT: News conference/announcement regarding San Diego County Board of Supervisors

CONTACT for news conference logistics: Alex Sachs, 619-368-3667 cell

Word spread like wildfire that Stephen Whitburn would be hosting a press conference on his birthday tomorrow at Twiggs in University Heights at 5:30pm.

Everyone remembers Whitburn for his strong come from behind campaign in 2008 against Todd Gloria. He has been popping up more and more as he has rebuilt his image for a political comeback. All eyes were on him to run for the State Assembly 76th AD seat in 2012 when Toni Atkins runs for State Senate instead of re-election for State Assembly. So when several buddies started claiming that Stephen Whitburn was holding a press conference tomorrow to announce his candidacy for County Board of Supervisors, I had a good laugh.

Why would someone throw away the chance of being a frontrunner for 2012 to run a long shot campaign for Board of Supervisors in 2010?

Whitburn is either being very valiant in running against Roberts in the BoS race or he is going to announce that Donna will grant his biggest birthday wish and will re-enter the race for Board of Supervisors.

I am betting that he will do just that and not announce his own candidacy for Board of Supervisors. Or he might be announcing his 2012 campaign two years ahead of time. After all Steve Danon did it successfully and is now the guy to beat. If Steve could do it that far ahead of time then so can Stephen.

But if he does pop my bubble and doesn’t announce a Frye re-entry but a Whitburn campaign for Board of Supervisors then count me in as a supporter.